“Upstream capex down 35% from its 2015 peak, refining at a 10-year low, miners 40% below 2012 - the bull market predates the war. Hormuz just compressed years of repricing into months.”

“Hormuz transit has collapsed and won’t recover near-term. The IEA pegs losses since February at 12.8 mb/d - the largest sustained supply shock on record. Domestic barrels, like the shallow-water Gulf, have never been worth more.”

“Stocks drew 250 mb in March–April, the IEA models another 8.5 mb/d draw in Q2, and the SPR sits at a 1983 low. No spare capacity, no spare inventory, no spare routes - only one fix: more US production.”

“The IEA scrapped its peak-oil call in the Nov 2025 WEO. US products supplied is running +2.6% YoY through the war - the transition is stacking on top of oil, not replacing it.”